各国都因疫情，大肆超发货币，从美元到纽币，都在加速贬值中。比较一下疫情前去超市的价格，现在的纽币购买力，下降惊人！
在目前的特殊时期，现金存银行肯定是亏本的，股市也都不是资金最好的避险处，所以黄金/纽币价格才会在短短的几个月内，冲破3000大关，虽然现在已经回落到2900多，但也说明，新西兰的不少投资标的，仍旧存在风险 。
我个人觉得，新西兰的一些城市/地区的房地产，是值得投资避险的。
目前新西兰的银行房贷利率低至2. 5%，奥克兰房地产刚需短缺，短时间内仍然无法解决。
如果小家庭夫妻俩有贷款信用，的确是买房的好时候。
不过，房产投资是以8-10年为周期的，不要想着这个月买了，下个月就涨价，也不能期待靠租房收入就能抵消利息与维护费用，那种想今年买房，明年卖出去的炒房做法，不是我所讨论的范围。
鹦鹉点评
工业化国家陆续日本化：老龄化，高债务，低增速，负（零）利率，低通胀。房子投资是个很好的选择。
MediaWorks已确认将其电视业务出售给美国公司探索公司（Discovery Inc）。
出售的业务包括Three and Bravo、流媒体服务ThreeNow、新闻和时事网站Newshub以及其他频道Three + 1、Bravo + 1、The Edge TV和The Breeze TV。
出售有望在今年年底前完成。
自2019年下半年以来，Media Works一直在尝试出售其电视业务，并且已经达成了出售其奥克兰中心地区办公地点的交易。
今年5月，Media Works宣布裁员130人，以应对Covid-19造成的收入下滑。而员工的工作时间和工资收入在四月份也有所减少。
公司首席执行官迈克尔·安德森（Michael Anderson）于年底加入公司说，他一收购对公司来说是最好的结果。“在探索公司旗下，Three，Newshub和Bravo将拥有长期的家园，并将继续在新西兰社会中发挥至关重要的作用。”
美国探索公司亚太区总裁西蒙·罗宾逊（Simon Robinson）表示，这是一次令人兴奋的收购。他说：“ MediaWorks TV是新西兰全国领先的独立免费无线商业广播公司，拥有受欢迎的节目和知名品牌。探索（Discovery）是一家全球性的节目制作公司， 横跨英国，德国，意大利等多个欧洲市场，凭借在新西兰市场26年的悠久历史，我们致力于推动MediaWorks TV的未来增长和成功，为新西兰电视受众和广告商带来更高的价值。”
探索公司的 “探索频道”拥有全球知名度，该公司自1994年开始就在新西兰“天空电视台”开播“探索频道”。
由于新冠疫情导致新西兰航空公司（简称纽航）几个月来几乎处于停飞状态，公司经济损失重大。
在截至6月份的财年报告显示，航空公司税后亏损为4.54亿纽元，而上年同期利润有2.76亿纽元。
损失的很大一部分是由于飞机价值的减损和公司重组的成本，这部分成本为5.41亿纽元。 公司已经解雇了约4000名员工。
纽航收入为48.4亿美元， 下降16％。不过，该公司已获得超过1亿美元的工资补贴。
纽航70％的收入来自国际航班，但因为边境限制仍然存在，公司业务将继续受到重大影响。
纽航实际上已经停止了所有国际航班。
在第二次疫情爆发导致全国进入疫情三级和二级警戒前，纽航设法获得了大约70％的国内航空服务。
不过，纽航的货运业务收入增长强劲，因为公司增加了运输必需品的航班。
纽航表示，公司正以每月6500万至8500万纽元的速度消耗现金。截至本周为止，公司拥有11亿纽元的现金储备，其中包括9亿纽元的政府支持贷款。纽航预计将很快开始动用该笔现金。（毛传媒编译）
今天上午，中国商务部发布公告，对自澳大利亚进口的葡萄酒进行反倾销立案调查。澳大利亚贸易部长伯明翰回应称中国此举“令人非常失望与费解”。
公告称，商务部于2020年7月6日收到中国酒业协会（即申请人）代表中国葡萄酒产业正式提交的反倾销调查申请，决定自8月18日起对原产于澳大利亚的进口相关葡萄酒进行反倾销立案调查。
倾销调查期为2019年1月1日至2019年12月31日，产业损害调查期为2015年1月1日至2019年12月31日。
这次的调查对象为“主要作为饮料酒供人消费的”，装在2升及以下容器中的澳大利亚原产葡萄酒（Wines in containers holding 2 liters or less）。
根据有关规定，中国商务部可以采用问卷、抽样、听证会、现场核查等方式向有关利害关系方了解情况，进行调查。
本次调查自2020年8月18日起开始，通常应在2021年8月18日前结束调查，特殊情况下可延长至2022年2月18日。
此外，中国还告知澳大利亚，正在考虑应中方有关申请人的请求，对后者发起反补贴调查。
澳大利亚贸易部长西蒙·伯明翰（Simon Birmingham）随即发布公告，称中国采取的措施“令人非常失望与费解”。
伯明翰表示，澳大利亚的葡萄酒业付出了令人难以置信的努力，确立了自己的地位，让澳大利亚成为世界领先的葡萄酒生产地和出口地。他同时表示，澳大利亚的葡萄酒质量好，因而在中国深受欢迎。而且，澳大利亚葡萄酒的出售价格不低于市场价，也没有得到出口补贴。
“澳大利亚将全面参与中国的调查程序，有力证明没有根据来支持[申请人]提出的主张。
“我们的政府将与澳大利亚葡萄酒业站在一起，维护该行业靠生产在世界各地需求旺盛的葡萄酒而获得的诚信和来之不易的声誉，”伯明翰说。
四个月前，中国驻澳大利亚大使成竞业在接受《澳大利亚金融评论》（Australian Financial Review）采访时曾暗示，如果澳大利亚政府继续推动对新冠疫情的独立调查，中国公众可能会抵制澳大利亚产品或决定未来不访问澳大利亚。
去年，澳大利亚葡萄酒管理局（Wine Australia）首席执行官安德烈斯·克拉克（Andreas Clark）曾表示，中国对澳大利亚葡萄酒出口的增长至关重要。
该机构的数据则显示，中国在2019年再次成为澳大利亚葡萄酒出口取得大幅增长的地区，创下单个财政年内的最高纪录，达12亿澳元。（澳广）
旅宿订房业者Airbnb周三首度对房客提告，原因是该名房客违反禁令，上周于加州沙加缅度郡一间住宅，未经许可举办派对。有三人在这场派对上遭到枪击。Airbnb将要求房客做出现金赔偿，并将钱捐给沙加缅度对抗枪枝暴力的非营利机构。
公司不愿透露该名房客的姓名，但表示已将对方从平台上移除。准备首次公开募股的Airbnb一直尝试洗刷形象，例如承诺要验证所有订房清单，并对派对采取更为强硬的立场。
去年底，加州奥伦达一场未经核准的派对上有五人遭开枪击毙，Airbnb随即禁止在租屋场所举行“公开邀请”派对。Airbnb成立快速因应部门来处理邻居投诉，并开始筛选“高风险”订房，例如预订大型住家，却只住宿一晚的订房，上月更禁止25岁以下房客预订住家附近的整栋住宅。
(新加坡联合早报）
在过去六个月里，新西兰高价值的黄金奇异果品种 Sun Gold – 太阳金-在中国的非法播种面积几乎翻了一番。这让新西兰人担心对中国的黄金奇异果的出口会受到打击。
金太阳Sun Gold 奇异果品种由新西兰奇异果营销商 Zespri 拥有。在新西兰，果农种植一公顷的金太阳奇异果要花上数十万纽元。
Zespri 表示，六个月前，中国未经授权的黄金奇异果种植大约有2500公顷 ，现在已经增加到4000公顷。
在新西兰，黄金奇异果种植面建大约有7500公顷。
Zespri 公司一位高级主管戴夫·考特尼（Dave Courtney）说，他们正在密切关注情况的发展。
“我们需要了解的关键是中国生产的奇异果的质量，如果它的质量很高，与我们在新西兰和其他地区生产的水果质量相同，那对新西兰黄金奇异果的威胁会很大。不幸的是，中国的果园看起来有很大一部分可以生产出优质奇异果。”
考特尼说，目前，中国的黄金奇异果产量不高，但如果中国果农学会如何种植好奇异果，新西兰的水果就会被挤下中国超市的货架，价格会被降低。
Zespri – 世界上最大的奇异果经销商 – 知道要求中国方面根除新西兰品种奇异果的种植不太可能，他们考虑运用植物品种权（PVR / Plant Variety Right) 对中国非法中国新西兰品种的奇异果采取法律行动，以减缓中国方面的种植。
考特尼先生（Courtney）承认通过法律途径解决问题是一条艰难的路。
中国承认新西兰拥有植物品种权（PVR），但来自奇异果种植区的中国官员表示，他们需要做奇异果果农的工作。考特尼说中方官员对对某种“双赢”的解决办法感兴趣。
考特尼说，中方几周前提出了这个新想法。但Zespri在做出任何决定之前还有很长的路要走。
（编译自RadioNZ )
《港区国安法》生效后，港府与警方被赋予更大权力截取通讯资料，甚至可要求平台供应商交出使用者资料。在多家科技公司纷纷表态拒绝以后，微软和Zoom也加入这个行列。
《港区国安法》生效后，美国科技龙头微软(Microsoft)和近日十分受欢迎的视讯软件Zoom加入其它科技公司的行列，宣布暂时不会配合港府索取用户个人资料的要求。
微软在答复法新社查询时表示，该公司会在任何新法实施后所作的一样，审视新法律，了解其意涵。声明表示：“过去，我们通常只会从香港政府那里收到非常少量的请求，但是由于我们正在审视新法律，我们现在正暂停处理来自港府的请求。”
通讯软件Zoom也在周二（7日）发出声明表示：“Zoom支持自由公开的思想与意见交换。我们已经暂停所有来自香港特别行政区、或是和香港特别行政区有关的资料申请要求。”
该软件在新冠疫情期间因应视频会议沟通需求上涨而窜红，但近月因为创办人的中国背景而被质疑其安全性，已经被台湾政府及美国太空总署(NASA)禁用。
此前，脸书、谷歌、推特在周一（6日）宣布，在谨慎评估新法影响前，暂时不会配合港府要求。脸书除了自家通讯软件Messenger以外，也yong’yWhatsApp和Instagram。而抖音海外版应用程式TikTok则宣布日内将撤出香港市场。
苹果公司周一（6日）表示，并不会直接从香港政府收到有关用户内容的请求。相反地，公司要求香港当局根据美港法律互助条约提交请求，美国司法部收到这些请求后，才会审查是否符合法律规定。
科技公司若不配合香港法令，可能会遭到港府限制或禁用，影响到在港营运。虽然脸书、谷歌、推特本来就已经被禁止在中国大陆境内使用，但是微软、苹果和Zoom都还没有被禁止。
7月6日晚间，香港政府公布《港区国安法》第43条实施细则，7月7日生效。该法授权警方要求发布者或网路平台服务商移除危害国安的讯息，违者会被罚款或监禁。警务处长也有权向外国或台湾政治性组织或代理人索取涉港活动资讯，包括个人资料、资金、资产等，而整个程序不需要法院同意，只需要保安局长批准。
（德国之声）
By Hongzhi Gao & Monica Ren
Hongzhi Gao from Victoria University of Wellington and Macquarie University’s Monica Ren have been talking to businesses on both sides of the Tasman about the impact of the US-China trade war and the opportunities it throws up in a time of COVID-19.
Tensions between China and the US have only increased following the recent decision by Washington to further restrict any company from trading with the Chinese communications giant Huawei, if they use US-generated technology and equipment.
While other nations, including New Zealand, may have seen some positive spill-over benefits from the dispute benefiting some suppliers here, the negative economic impact from the escalating trade war has also hit many sectors.
In today’s global business environment, no company is immune to international political risks. While many firms in Australia and New Zealand may dodge the bullets by “lying low” in the early stages of a trade war between two superpowers, the repercussions are beginning to become painful for some businesses in Australia and New Zealand.
A very recent example is the decision by China to impose hefty import tariffs on Australian barley imports, worth more than $600 million last year.
Licences to four Australian meat exporters supplying to China have also been suspended, in a move widely seen as punishment for Canberra’s support for the US call for an international inquiry into the spread of the coronavirus.
Wine sellers, abalone farmers and other grain producers across the Tasman are watching closely, fearing more tariffs to come.
Indeed the Chinese government has now warned Australia to “distance” itself from the US amid growing tensions between the two countries, saying it would be “extremely dangerous” for Canberra to become involved.
Political risk is one of the most critical, sometimes deadly, risks in international business, and a golden principle in managing that risk has been a distancing or “lying low” approach.
It’s easy to say, but hard to do, especially at a time when the US-China trade war meets the global COVID-19 pandemic crisis.
Global businesses, investors, and managers are closely monitoring the development of the conflict, and weighing up their most viable options for responding to the unavoidable disruption to their businesses.
To understand the impact of the trade war on Australian and New Zealand exporters, a research team comprising Associate Professor Hongzhi Gao, and researcher Ivy Guo from Victoria University of Wellington and Dr Monica Ren from Macquarie University, conducted interviews with sixteen managers from Australia, New Zealand, Germany and China between October and December 2019, looking at the impact of the trade war on exporters.
Key questions explored in the study included: (1) how managers perceive the US-China trade tensions and (2) how their perceptions influence their decisions in export market selection and international sourcing in the short term or long-term.
While the research is still progressing, some preliminary findings have been released.
“The US-China trade war has its own economic rationale, and reflects an ongoing trend of trade protectionism to counter the trade imbalance.”
One group of research informants have clearly expressed this view, pointing out strongly that the trade war is a reflection of protectionist trade policies which have gathered momentum in recent years.
In 2017 US President Donald Trump ran on a campaign platform putting ” America First” , and blaming the trade imbalance with China for many of his country’s economic woes.
The ongoing trade war between the two nations further amplifies the rise of protectionist policy movements globally, and some managers put that down in part to the inefficiency of the WTO in resolving many trade disputes between nations.
But the flow-on effect of the US-China trade war continues to be deep and contagious, and many businesses see the protectionist mindset gaining more support among policy makers around the world.
As many businesses regard a rising protectionism as a symptom of a wider trend towards whats been dubbed “de-globalisation”, they have concentrated on their home markets and selectively explored new overseas markets where they see fewer protectionist attitudes, or where they have an opportunity to leverage their particular favourable country-of-origin image.
One Australian food and beverage sector manager told us :“I think it’s started as political. And now it’s all about protection of things.”
“What worries me is the flow-on effect, because if you have a protective mindset then you are probably going to look at applying that to all markets.”
On this side of the Tasman , a manager from a manufacturing enterprise from also warned of a spreading protectionist stance:
“The trade war appeared to be just between the US and China, but overall the US is becoming more protectionist in terms of importing from elsewhere…. As the US has become a little more protectionist, the companies from the US feel a little bit more like, when they go to Europe, they might face more barriers because this is what the government of the US is doing”
“We adjusted our market for our products to be sold exclusively in Australia, and we are building towards a solid Australian brand. Then, we will consider moving towards overseas markets again.” said a manager from an Australia-based health product company.
Another Kiwi business manager who works in specialised equipment manufacture pointed out the trade conflict can have some unexpected up-sides for some companies.
“We opened our business in the UK in 2015…it’s only in the last 18 months we have put a lot of effort into going into Europe properly… for example, our product is available in Spanish, so Spain was very much a big target.”
“There is the correlation between the US companies coming out of Europe and focusing more on their home markets as opportunities begin growing for them as a local manufacturer.
“What we did notice was that some of the manufacturers from the US that previously were selling into Europe had a lesser presence there, because there was more activity in their home markets.
“We have seen less competition from the Chinese in Europe; as these Chinese competitors have been hit hard by the US tariffs too … So there are more opportunities for us in Europe.”
Researching business opinion has shown that while the trade war presents unprecedented protectionist challenges to firms selling to the global market, some have become more home-market focused, while some continued to see opportunities in new markets.
Researchers found that those companies who were in an expansive mode have taken advantage of their industry networks (internationally) to secure new customers in the countries who hold a favourable view of Australia and New Zealand, at a time of high international political tensions.
But it seems those opportunities will only be presented to those who develop dynamic marketing capabilities, and are willing to sense and act on the changes to market dynamics being prompted by a bitter trade war between the world’s two largest economies.
This is part one of a three-part series looking at the latest analysis of business perceptions regarding the current US-China trade war.
（This piece has first appeared on the Asia Media Centre’s website.）
解读中美股市不同表现
美股投资建议
谈谈澳新股票
股市投资建议
Investment Advice
–
注：高宏志博士任职新西兰维多利亚大学商学院，毛传媒特约时评人，曾就中美贸易战在毛传媒发表过多篇有见地的深入评析。在新冠病毒导致股市动荡的当下，毛传媒特别邀请高博士就美国、澳洲和新西兰股市情况进行分析并给出投资建议。
高博士此文建议不涉及任何个人和机构利益，完全是他本人的一些思考判断。切记投资股票，风险自负。 – 编 辑
